Fixed mortgage rates reverse course for the first time this year

A Freddie Mac sign stands outside the company's headquarters in McLean, Virginia, U.S., on Tuesday, April 8, 2014. Senator Sherrod Brown, an Ohio Democrat and a member of the Senate Banking Committee, said a bipartisan bill to replace Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is too complicated and doesn't do enough to address too-big-to-fail concerns or provide assistance for affordable housing. The panel will consider the measure on April 29. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg (Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg News)

Fixed mortgage rates moved lower for first time in 2018.

According to the latest data released Thursday by Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate average slipped to 4.44 percent with an average 0.5 point. (Points are fees paid to a lender equal to 1 percent of the loan amount.) It was 4.46 percent a week ago and 4.3 percent a year ago.

The 15-year fixed-rate average fell to 3.9 percent with an average 0.5 point. It was 3.94 percent a week ago and 3.5 percent a year ago. The five-year adjustable rate average rose to 3.67 percent with an average 0.4 point. It was 3.63 percent a week ago and 3.28 percent a year ago.

[ Financial planning can help reduce anxiety of buying a home ]

“After holding steady for much of the week — even through Friday’s exceptionally strong jobs report — rates fell for the first time this year after inflation data reported Tuesday were weaker than anticipated, and news of the firing of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson prompted some financial market flight to safety,” said Aaron Terrazas, senior economist at Zillow. “Beyond the continued risk of geopolitical developments, the Fed is expected to raise short-term interest rates at next Wednesday’s [Federal Open Market Committee] meeting. The press conference following the meeting will be Chairman [Jerome] Powell’s first since taking over in mid-February and markets will study the FOMC’s quarterly forecasts for signals about the committee’s unspoken monetary policy leanings.”

Bankrate.com, which puts out a weekly mortgage rate trend index, found that nearly two-thirds of the experts it surveyed say rates will remain relatively stable in the coming week. Shashank Shekhar, the chief executive of Arcus Lending, is one who expects rates to hold steady.

“Rates went up too quickly at the beginning of the year and are now simply taking a pause,” Shekhar said. “Mortgage-backed securities, the trading of which directly influences the rate, seems to be agnostic even to big personnel changes in the White House and Britain’s action against Russia. It would take something even more dramatic and unexpected for the mortgage rates to move by a big margin either way, up or down.”

[ Know your mortgage options when searching for a new home ]

Meanwhile, mortgage applications were flat again last week, according to the latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association. The market composite index — a measure of total loan application volume — increased 0.9 percent from a week earlier. The refinance index fell 2 percent, while the purchase index rose 3 percent.

The refinance share of mortgage activity accounted for 40.1 percent of all applications, its lowest level since September 2008.

“Although the purchase market continues to be constrained by a lack of supply, applications for home purchase loans increased 3 percent last week to the highest level in over a month, as demographic and economic conditions remain favorable for housing demand,” said Joel Kan, an MBA economist. “Refinance activity remains weak as rates have increased in essentially every week of 2018 thus far, reducing the benefit of a refinance for those borrowers currently in the market.”

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Mortgage applications jump 4.5% as buyers rush to beat higher rates

• Mortgage applications rose 4.5 percent last week from the previous week, the Mortgage Bankers Association says.
• Application volume was 6.1 percent higher than one year ago.

Mortgage applications are up 4.5%   3 Hours Ago | 00:39

Spring has sprung early in this housing market. Buyers, seeing a new trend toward higher interest rates, are rushing in before the first buds appear.
Mortgage applications rose 4.5 percent last week from the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's seasonally adjusted report. Application volume was 6.1 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
Applications to purchase a home led the charge, rising 6 percent for the week to the highest level since April 2010. These loan applications are now 7 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
"A combination of being left on the sideline last summer due to a lack of inventory for sale and the prospect of slowly rising interest rates over the near term appears to have buyers in a hurry to start the spring buying season," said Lynn Fisher, MBA's vice president of research and economics.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances of $453,100 or less increased to 4.36 percent, its highest level since March. That's up from 4.33 percent, with points remaining unchanged at 0.54, including the origination fee, for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio loans. The 15-year fixed rate climbed to its highest level since September 2013.
Mortgage applications to refinance a home loan also rose, up 1 percent for the week, despite higher rates. Refinance volume usually moves in the opposite direction of interest rates, but borrowers are clearly worried that the direction now is only going to be higher, and they may miss an opportunity with rates still near multiyear lows. Mortgage rates loosely follow the yield on the 10-year Treasury.
"Last week, 10-year Treasury yields increased by 10 basis points over the course of holiday-shortened week, due to a mixed bag of economic and political headlines," Fisher said, referring to Martin Luther King Day.
Not only are homebuyers facing higher mortgage rates, they are looking at a spring season with precious few homes for sale, especially in the starter and mid-level categories. Inventory has been falling for more than two years and homebuilders are not even close to meeting today's strong demand. That means higher home prices even amid higher mortgage rates.
"The increases that we've seen so far have only gotten people off the couch and into the market," Glenn Kelman, CEO of Redfin, told CNBC's "Power Lunch" on Tuesday. "People are worrying that they need to hurry and buy a house now before rates go up further."

Mortgage applications shoot up 8.3% to start the year

• Homebuyers this year are facing a new landscape on the tax front.
• Total mortgage application volume rose 8.3 percent during the first week of the year.
• Refinance applications led the charge, rising 11 percent from the previous week.

Ty Wright | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Potential home buyers walk past an 'Open House' sign displayed in the front yard of a property for sale in Columbus, Ohio, on Sunday, Dec. 3, 2017.

Pent-up demand from the holidays likely fueled the solid jump in mortgage applications last week.
Total application volume rose 8.3 percent during the first week of the year from the previous week, as mortgage rates held below year-ago levels, according to the seasonally adjusted Mortgage Bankers Association report.

Refinance applications led the charge, rising 11 percent from the previous week. Homeowners may be taking advantage of lower rates now, concerned that rates will move higher this year. Rates were higher at the start of 2017 than they are now. Homeowners also saw big gains in home equity last year and may be taking advantage of that in cash-out refinances.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances of $453,100 or less was basically unchanged during the week, increasing just 1 basis point to 4.23 percent, with points decreasing to 0.35 from 0.37, including the origination fee, for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio loans.

Economic news was mixed during the week, which kept interest rates in check.

"For example, the ISM's nonmanufacturing index showed that growth in the services sector was down for the second month, and the BLS' December jobs report was weaker than expected," said Joel Kan, an MBA economist. "However, these were partially offset by slightly stronger factory orders for November and continued optimism of positive impacts from the tax reform plan."

Homebuyers also came back to the market after the holiday break. Mortgage applications to purchase a home rose 5 percent for the week but were 1 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

"This was likely a catch-up week for potential borrowers as we head into the new year," Kan said.

Homebuyers this year are facing a new landscape on the tax front. The Republican tax plan reduced the deductions that homeowners can take for property taxes and mortgage interest. In higher-priced housing markets and in states with high property-tax rates, that makes homebuying more expensive than it was just a few weeks ago.

Buyers are also facing higher prices due to a severe lack of supply. More homes should begin to come on the market this month and next, with sellers hoping to get the jump on the spring market, especially those who are selling in order to buy another home. Unfortunately for buyers, there is so much demand for housing right now that any new supply will likely be swallowed up quickly with competition and prices remaining high.

Robert Bobby Darvish Platinum Lending Solutions Orange County california

U.S. home prices soar by the most in 3 years, led by Seattle

WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. home prices rose at the fastest pace in more than three years in September, lifted by a record-low supply of houses for sale. Seattle posted the highest year-over-year increase, topping all other cities by a hefty margin.

The Standard & Poor's CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index released Tuesday rose 6.2 percent in September from a year earlier, the largest gain since June 2014. In 13 of the 20 cities tracked by the index, yearly price gains in September were faster than in August.
Home buyers are desperately bidding up prices because so few properties are available. The number of homes for sale in September was the fewest for that month on records dating back to 2001, according to the National Association of Realtors. And home builders aren't yet putting up enough new homes to reduce the supply crunch.

Seattle, Las Vegas and San Diego reported the highest year-over-year gains. Home prices jumped 12.9 percent in Seattle, 9 percent in Las Vegas and 8.2 percent in San Diego. Las Vegas, one of the hardest-hit cities in the housing bust, has been making a comeback since prices bottomed out in 2012.
Home prices rose in all 20 cities. The smallest gains were in Washington D.C., where prices rose 3.1 percent; Chicago, with a 3.9 percent gain; and Miami, at 5 percent.
Unemployment is low and the economy is growing at a solid clip, fueling demand for homes. Mortgage rates also remain historically low, with the average rate on a 30-year mortgage below 4 percent.

Yet Americans are remaining in their homes longer, according to a recent survey by the Realtors. Many are reluctant to sell because there are so few other homes to buy.
Builders are responding to the pent-up demand by building more houses. The construction of new homes jumped nearly 14 percent in October to the fastest pace in a year. But home builders are struggling to find the workers and land they need to ramp up construction more quickly.
"The past two months have shown promising signs of life from builders," Svenja Gudell, chief economist at real estate data provider Zillow, said. "But it's going to take a lot more than two good months to fully erase the housing deficit we're facing after years of underbuilding."
The Case-Shiller index covers roughly half of U.S. homes. The index measures prices compared with those in January 2000 and creates a three-month moving average. The September figures are the latest available.

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GOP tax plan would shrink mortgage interest benefit, slash corporate tax rate

By Damian Paletta and Mike DeBonis November 2 at 3:00 PM

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What's in the House GOP tax plan?

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House Republican leaders on Thursday, Nov. 2 proposed legislation that would overhaul the U.S. tax code. Here's what you need to know about it. (Monica Akhtar/The Washington Post)

House Republican leaders on Thursday proposed legislation that would overhaul the U.S. tax code, slash corporate and individual income tax rates and jettison numerous tax breaks Americans and businesses have used for years to limit their tax bills.
The release of the proposal accelerates a frantic political effort that could impact almost every American household and business. In a number of cases, the tax plan cuts back on tax benefits for families and individuals while expanding tax benefits for companies.
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act would lower the corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 20 percent and collapse the seven tax brackets paid by families and individuals down to four. It would create giant new benefits for the wealthy by cutting business taxes, eliminating the estate tax, and ending the alternative minimum tax.

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The legislation would cut in half the popular mortgage interest deduction used by millions of American homeowners, changing the deduction’s rules for new mortgages. Presently, Americans can deduct interest payments made on their first $1 million worth of home loans. Under the bill, for new mortgages, they would only be able to deduct interest payments made on their first $500,000 worth of home loans.
This change could have a particularly big impact on high-cost areas, such as San Francisco, New York, Boston, and the Washington D.C. area, and housing groups and lawmakers will likely try to defeat it. The bill would allow people to deduct their local property taxes from their taxable income, though this benefit would be capped at $10,000.

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10 tax reform promises Trump has made

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A look at what President Trump has promised Americans as it relates to his tax reform plan. (Joyce Koh/The Washington Post)

[All your major questions about the GOP tax plan, answered]

The bill would nearly double the amount of money not subject to federal income tax, a tax break known as the “standard deduction.” Under the plan, that deduction would rise from $12,700 per family to $24,000. But this benefit would be partially offset by the personal exemption many Americans can claim, which can be large for families with multiple children.
The bill’s true impact on the middle class will be difficult to immediately measure. The bill would create a new “Family Credit” and expand the child tax credit used by working families. The child tax credit would grow from $1,000 per child to $1,600 for each child.
Families would also no longer be able to deduct their state income taxes from their federal taxable income, another change that would have a particular impact on places like New Jersey and New York, where state taxes are higher than in other areas. Taxpayers will be able to deduct their property taxes up to $10,000.
Americans would no longer be able to deduct their medical expenses or property and casualty losses, according to a document outlining the plan.
The legislative fight over the tax bill has become the Trump administration’s biggest political goal, after failed attempts to repeal the Affordable Care Act. Trump wants the legislation to pass the House and the Senate by the end of the year, though they must resolve numerous differences.
The bill would add $1.5 trillion to the debt over 10 years, but Republicans believe the changes would trigger a surge in economic growth, higher wages, and job creation.
Other changes in the bill would be far reaching. It would, for example, make changes to college savings programs and have new requirements for tax-exempt organizations like churches and charities.
The measure now moves into a contentious phase as Republican lawmakers look to make their preferred changes to the bill while nearly all Democrats work to block it, all while an army of lobbyists lean on Congress in a bid to protect their preferred deductions.
Robert Bobby Darvish Platinum Lending Solutions Orange County

Fed Raises Key Interest Rate For 4th Time Since 2015

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen speaks to reporters in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday after the Fed announced it would increase interest rates by a quarter-point.

Susan Walsh/AP 

 

Updated at 3:55 p.m. ET.
Federal Reserve policymakers have raised their target for the benchmark federal funds interest rate by a quarter-point, to a range of 1 percent to 1.25 percent.
Despite the increase — the fourth since December 2015 — interest rates remain near historic lows, but the move will mean higher borrowing costs for consumers. The Fed previously raised rates in March, and on Wednesday, it signaled plans for one more rate increase this year.

In a statement Wednesday, the policymakers said that "the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising moderately so far this year."
The economy grew at a rate of 1.2 percent in the first quarter of this year, about half as fast as it did in the final three months of 2016. Unemployment dipped to 4.3 percent in May, a 16-year low.
"Job gains have moderated but have been solid, on average, since the beginning of the year, and the unemployment rate has declined," the Fed statement said. "Household spending has picked up in recent months, and business fixed investment has continued to expand."

Greg McBride, an analyst with consumer financial site Bankrate.com, tells NPR's Yuki Noguchi that, taken together, the Fed's moves have caused home equity and car loan rates to increase about 1 percentage point over the last two years.
"The combination of rising debt burdens and rising interest rates is starting to strain some households, and we're seeing delinquencies pick up from recent lows," McBride says.
In the wake of the financial crisis, the central bank added Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities to its balance sheet. Now it's making plans to reduce those holdings, which total more than $4 trillion.
The Fed said it "currently expects to begin implementing a balance sheet normalization program this year, provided that the economy evolves broadly as anticipated."
As Reuters reports:

"The central bank said it would gradually ramp up the pace of its balance sheet reduction and anticipates the plan would feature halting reinvestments of ever-larger amounts of maturing securities.
"The Fed said the initial cap for Treasuries would be set at $6 billion per month initially and increase by $6 billion increments every three months over a 12-month period until it reached $30 billion per month in reductions to its holdings.
"For agency debt and mortgage-backed securities, the cap will be $4 billion per month initially, increasing by $4 billion at quarterly intervals over a year until it reached $20 billion per month."

Robert Bobby Darvish Platinum Lending Solutions Newport Beach CA

Mortgage rates edge higher but remain within a narrow band

 

(Jason Reed/Reuters)

Mortgage rates wandered higher again this week after a brief slip but remain within a narrow band.
According to the latest data released Thursday by Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate average ticked up to 4.05 percent with an average 0.5 point. (Points are fees paid to a lender equal to 1 percent of the loan amount.) It was 4.02 percent a week ago and 3.57 percent a year ago. The 30-year average has hovered between 4.02 percent and 4.05 percent the past three weeks.
“Mixed economic reports over the last few weeks have anchored the 30-year mortgage rate around the 4 percent mark,” Sean Becketti, Freddie Mac chief economist, said in a statement.

[New rules on student loans may make it easier for many to qualify for mortgages]

The 15-year fixed-rate average rose to 3.29 percent with an average 0.5 point. It was 3.27 percent a week ago and 2.81 percent a year ago. The five-year adjustable rate average increased to 3.14 percent with an average 0.5 point. It was 3.13 percent a week ago and 2.78 percent a year ago.
With the yield on the 10-year Treasury climbing to 2.42 percent Tuesday, its highest point since March 30, home loan rates — which tend to follow the movement of long-term bonds — were slowing moving higher. Then came the unexpected firing of FBI Director James B. Comey. Because this type of news makes investors anxious and causes them to seek safety in bonds, the yield on the 10-year U.S. bond slid to 2.41 percent Wednesday.
The retreat in long-term bond yields came too late in the week to be factored into Freddie Mac’s survey. The government-backed mortgage-backer aggregates rates weekly from 125 lenders from across the country to come up with a national home loan rate average.

[As equity rises, many homeowners use refinancings to free up cash]

Experts are mixed on where mortgage rates are headed. Rates had fallen in 6 of the past 7 weeks. Bankrate.com, which puts out a weekly mortgage rate trend index, found that about half of the experts it surveyed say rates will go up and another half say they will remain relatively stable in the coming week. Less than 10 percent say they will fall. Greg McBride, chief financial analyst for Bankrate.com, is one who expects rates to rise.
“The job market is tightening, inflation is moving up, and the Fed is poised to raise rates in June — all of which is providing some lift to mortgage rates,” McBride said.
Meanwhile, mortgage applications picked up last week, according to the latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association. The market composite index — a measure of total loan application volume — increased 2.4 percent. The refinance index rose 3 percent, while the purchase index grew 2 percent to its highest level since October 2015.
The refinance share of mortgage activity accounted for 41.9 percent of all applications.

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Beware of mind games when shopping mortgage rates

(Photo: Getty Images/iStockphoto)

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Sometimes our brain gets in the way of a good decision. It’s called “cognitive bias,” and it happens when our mind tricks us into making irrational choices. We think something is true — and we just go with it.
Here’s how to keep your mind from messing with you when shopping for the best mortgage rate.

Raise the anchor

Maybe your ears perked up when you heard about 3.5% mortgage rates last summer. You started to think about buying a home or possibly refinancing. But now rates are closer to 4.5%.
In this case, the mind game at work is called “anchoring.” You just can’t get that 3.5% rate out of your head.

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"Once you have that number in your mind, it's very hard for you to be flexible about proceeding with a financial decision," says Mary Gresham, a psychologist in Atlanta. “You might think, 'Well, I'll just wait until it goes back [down] to that.’"
But if rates keep moving higher, you might wish later that you had snagged that “high” 4.5% rate.

Don’t get hung up on framing

Another way our brain sometimes blocks our best interests is through “framing” — drawing varying conclusions from the same information when it’s presented differently.
"Percentages look small," says Dan Ariely, professor of psychology and behavioral economics at Duke University. "Imagine if instead, mortgages were framed not in terms of percentages but in terms of how much we're going to pay in interest over the life of the mortgage." This information is available to borrowers, but it's generally not how they comparison shop for a loan, Ariely says.

This company will double your down payment. What’s the catch?

The difference between a 4.75% and a 4.5% rate might not seem like big — but what if you considered total costs? You may be less willing to choose a product that charged $25,000 more in interest over the life of the loan and had $3,000 more in closing fees.

Slow and steady wins the rate

Avoiding irrational thinking requires knowing a bit about how your thought processes work.
"We have two brain systems that do our finances for us,” Gresham says. “One is what we call the fast, emotional system. And the other is the slow, rational system. Take your time and think it through. Don't make a quick decision about finances."

'A bad idea': More new mortgages are risky ones

As Ariely notes, "We decide on a mortgage too early without truly searching and without negotiating."
Consider the big picture and the big numbers. Shopping annual percentage rates (APRs) rather than just a lender’s published rates, and considering your total costs can help you choose the best mortgage.
And give your mind a little more time to work out the details.

Robert Bobby Darvish of Platinum Lending Solutions of Orange County

Mortgage Rates Were Up on Friday as the Jobs Report Showed the Signs of a "Trump Effect"

Mortgage rates were slightly higher on Friday. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy added 227,000 jobs in the month of January, beating expectations and providing evidence that the "Trump effect" on animal spirits has had an early economic impact.

The average 30-year mortgage rate rose four basis points, to 4.08%, on Friday, which equates to a $482.04 monthly payment per $100,000 borrowed (one basis point equals one-hundredth of a percentage point). A month ago, the equivalent payment was lower by $1.74.
The average 15-year mortgage rate rose one basis point, to 3.23%, equating to a $701.70 monthly payment per $100,000 borrowed. A month ago, the equivalent payment was the same.

Rate (national average)	Today	1 Month Ago
30-year fixed jumbo	4.48%	4.57%
30-year fixed	4.08%	4.05%
15-year fixed	3.23%	3.23%
30-year fixed refi	4.11%	4.09%
15-year fixed refi	3.25%	3.25%
5/1 ARM	3.26%	3.39%
5/1 ARM refi	3.33%	3.60%

5/1 ARM: ADJUSTABLE-RATE MORTGAGE WITH AN INITIAL FIXED FIVE-YEAR INTEREST RATE. DATA SOURCE: BLOOMBERG. RATES MAY INCLUDE POINTS.

Image source: Getty Images.

Mortgage rates are closely linked to the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond. That yield, in turn, reflects the bond market's expectations for future short-term interest rates over the bond's maturity. And short-term interest rates, well, they reflect the Fed's assessment of the economy and its prospects.

This brings us to the most highly anticipated macroeconomic data release: the Labor Department's monthly Employment Situation Report. This morning's report was no different, as economists and investors try to find their bearings during the first 100 days of the iconoclastic Trump administration.
The January report was broadly positive with 227,000 workers added to payrolls, surpassing the consensus forecast of 175,000. As the following graph shows, the figure for January (blue line) is above the trailing 12-month average of 195,000 (red line):

Image source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

The unemployment rate ticked up by a tenth of a percentage point, to 4.8%, but the trend reflects an economy that's creating enough jobs to maintain the unemployment rate (green line) at 5% or below. (Note that the participation rate has remained pretty stable over this period.)
While their ardor appears to have cooled somewhat since the actual handover in power, stock and bond market investors took a very buoyant view of economic prospects under the new administration. The narrative was that a businessman in the highest office would act decisively to boost American businesses, and that was plainly enough to raise "animal spirits." Today's data suggests the "Trump effect" probably had a genuine economic impact, but investors need to "watch the downside," too.

By: Robert Bobby Darvish of Platinum Lending Solutions of Orange County

How a one-two, Trump-Yellen punch may move interest rates

Jayne Kamin-Oncea | Getty Images

Interest rates could try recent highs on the potent combination of a hawkish Janet Yellen and the pro-growth talk that is likely to come from Donald Trump in the next couple days.
Trump will be sworn in as 45th U.S. president on Friday, and the markets are looking for him to play up his pledges to push forward tax breaks and infrastructure spending early in his administration. He may also take actions in his first days that reduce regulation and define his commitment to the promises he's made voters. That could be seen as a near-term negative for Treasury prices and would send yields higher.
Already, bond yields were on the rise Thursday, lifted by surprising remarks from Fed Chair Yellen on Wednesday afternoon and economic reports Thursday morning showing decades-low jobless claims, an 11.3 percent jump in housing starts and a two-year high in mid-Atlantic manufacturing activity. Also a factor was the Wednesday report of a jump in headline consumer price index inflation to a more than two-year high of 2.1 percent year over year in December.

"I don't think we're going to see a huge surge in optimism again. We're not going to get another leg off of it, but I also don't think we're going to go back to where we were in October." -Tom Simons, money market economist, Jefferies

In her comments, Yellen said she expects a few rate hikes this year and that the fed funds target rate could get to 3 percent by 2019 — all in line with the Fed's forecasts. But it was Yellen's seemingly confident embrace of those targets that got the market's attention. Markets had been skeptical of the Fed forecast, and many economists had expected just two rate increases this year, not the three in the central bank's projection.
"She certainly gave the market a big push. Just looking at March probabilities, they went from an 18 percent chance (of a rate hike) to 25," said Aaron Kohli, rate strategist at BMO. "The market went from pricing slightly less than two hikes to slightly more than two hikes in 2017." He said expectations in the fed funds futures for a June rate rise went to 93 percent from 85 percent after Yellen spoke.
The 10-year Treasury yield also snapped to 2.43 percent after Yellen spoke and was as high as 2.48 percent Thursday, its highest level since Jan. 3. The two-year yield rose as well, but the curve flattened, meaning the gap between two-year yields and 10-year yields narrowed. The two-year was as high as 1.25 percent Thursday.
Yellen was scheduled to speak again and take questions Thursday evening at 8 p.m. ET at a Stanford University event. The Fed next meets Feb. 1 and while it is not expected to take action, the gathering could result in some more hawkish talk.
Kohli said the next target for the 10-year would be 2.52 percent, and then 2.60 percent.

"After the weekend and Monday, it's going to be very interesting. What happens when we get to brass tacks will be interesting for sure." -Tom Simons, money market economist, Jefferies

The bond market has been consolidating for the past several weeks after the 10-year reached a postelection high of 2.64 percent on Dec. 15. That is the level that could be tested in the near future, strategists say.
"There's a short base that will get even bolder if rates get to that level," Kohli said, adding short bets could add to the growing position sending rates higher. "I think it's very possible you get that kind of spike up. What I would suggest is as soon as that happens you might go the other way."
Money market economist Tom Simons at investment banking firm Jefferies said he doesn't see a big move in yields, but the bias should be toward higher yields, and lower prices. "I don't think we're going to see a huge surge in optimism again. We're not going to get another leg off of it, but I also don't think we're going to go back to where we were in October," he said.
"Next week we'll have two-, five- and seven-year auctions, a little bit of supply, and a light data week, so the focus is going to be on Trump, and for the most part, the first stuff that comes out of the gate is probably going to be (bond) market negative and it will be risk positive," he said.
Simons said he thought the rally in Treasurys, which drove the 10-year yield toward 2.30 percent earlier this week, was overdone.

Look beyond bonds for income: Expert   22 Hours Ago | 01:39

In the last several weeks, yields fell as investors became disillusioned with the "Trump trade" and the prospects for quick adoption of the president-elect's pro-growth agenda.
Trump did talk up expectations for a tax program or stimulus when he met with the press last week, and that absence raised flags about what he will get done early in his administration. Trump's focus on repealing Obamacare and his comments on tariffs both were concerns for the market, since the issue of altering America's health-care system is seen as a quagmire, while tariffs could spark a trade war.
"After the weekend and Monday, it's going to be very interesting. What happens when we get to brass tacks will be interesting for sure," said Simons.
Kohli said he expects Trump to focus on infrastructure spending and tax cuts. He could make a bigger splash in markets if he announces fiscal spending that can be put to work right away. Tax reform and cuts are also important, but Kohli said that's likely months away.
Strategists expect Trump to push forward quickly on initiatives in his first weeks, and markets will be disappointed if he doesn't. "If he squanders it, that's his downside," said Kohli.

Robert Bobby Darvish Platinum Lending Solutions

Average US 30-Year Mortgage Rate Falls to 4.12 Percent

Long-term US mortgage rates fell this week, the second week of declines after snapping a nine-week run of increases.

Mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday the rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans eased to an average 4.12 percent from 4.20 percent last week. That was still sharply higher than a 30-year rate that averaged 3.65 percent for all of 2016, the lowest level recorded from records going back to 1971. A year ago, the benchmark rate stood at 3.92 percent.

The average for a 15-year mortgage declined to 3.37 percent from 3.44 percent last week.

Mortgage rates surged in the weeks since the election of Donald Trump in early November. Investors in Treasury bonds bid yield rates higher because they believe the president-elect's plans for tax cuts and higher spending on roads, bridges and airports will drive up economic growth and inflation.

That would depress prices of long-term Treasury bonds because inflation would erode their value over time, a prospect that caused investors to demand higher yields.

In the latest week, a report from the government on employment in December pushed the price of the 10-year Treasury bond higher, dampening its yield. The Labor Department report issued last Friday showed that U.S. employers added 156,000 jobs last month, capping a year of slower but solid hiring.

Though the unemployment rate rose to 4.7 percent from a nine-year low of 4.6 percent, it did so for an encouraging reason: More people began looking for work. Because not all of them found jobs immediately, more people were counted as unemployed in December.

Bond yields move opposite to prices and influence long-term mortgage rates. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond fell to 2.37 percent Wednesday from 2.44 percent a week earlier. That compares with 1.87 percent on Election Day Nov. 8. The yield declined further to 2.33 percent Thursday morning.

To calculate average mortgage rates, Freddie Mac surveys lenders across the country between Monday and Wednesday each week. The average doesn't include extra fees, known as points, which most borrowers must pay to get the lowest rates. One point equals 1 percent of the loan amount.

The average fee for a 30-year mortgage was unchanged this week at 0.5 point. The fee on 15-year loans also remained at 0.5 point.

Rates on adjustable five-year loans fell to 3.23 percent from 3.33 percent. The fee increased to 0.5 point from 0.4 point.

Robert Bobby Darvish of Platinum Lending Solutions
 

Mortgage Rates Move Higher

Mortgage Rates Move Higher

MCLEAN, VA--(Marketwired - Dec 15, 2016) - Freddie Mac ( OTCQB : FMCC ) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS^®), showing average fixed mortgage rates moving higher for the seventh consecutive week.

News Facts

• 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.16 percent with an average 0.5 point for the week ending December 15, 2016, up from last week when it averaged 4.13 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.97 percent.
  
  
• 15-year FRM this week averaged 3.37 percent with an average 0.5 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.36 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.22 percent.
  
  
• 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 3.19 percent this week with an average 0.4 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.17 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.03 percent.
  
  

Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for the Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.

Quote
Attributed to Sean Becketti, chief economist, Freddie Mac.

"As was almost-universally expected, the FOMC closed the year with its one-and-only rate hike of 2016. The consensus of the committee points to more rate hikes in 2017. However, the experience of this year combined with the policy uncertainty that accompanies a new Administration suggests a wait-and-see outlook.

"This week's mortgage rate survey was completed prior to the FOMC announcement. The 30-year mortgage rate rose 3 basis points on the week to 4.16 percent. The MBA's Applications Survey posted drops in both refinance and purchase applications, registering the impact of recent mortgage rate increases. If rates continue their upward trend, expect mortgage activity to be significantly subdued in 2017."

Freddie Mac was established by Congress in 1970 to provide liquidity, stability and affordability to the nation's residential mortgage markets. Freddie Mac supports communities across the nation by providing mortgage capital to lenders. Today Freddie Mac is making home possible for one in four home borrowers and is the largest source of financing for multifamily housing.  Robert Bobby Darvish of Platinum Lending Solutions Orange County

Mortgage rates reach highs not seen in more than a year

 

(Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)

Mortgage rates sustained their upward march this week without any indication that their trajectory will slow anytime soon.
Home loan rates had been on the rise before the election. But since Donald Trump’s victory, they have been on a tear.

According to data released Thursday by Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate average climbed to 4.08 percent with an average 0.5 point. (Points are fees paid to a lender equal to 1 percent of the loan amount.) The rate was 4.03 percent a week ago and 3.93 percent a year ago. The 30-year fixed rate has now gone up more than half a percentage point in the past three weeks. It hasn’t been this high since mid-July 2015.
The 15-year fixed-rate average jumped to 3.34 percent with an average 0.5 point. It was 3.25 percent a week ago and 3.16 percent a year ago. The 15-year fixed is at its highest level since October 2014.
The five-year adjustable rate average rose to 3.15 percent with an average 0.4 point. It was 3.12 percent a week ago and 2.99 percent a year ago. The five-year ARM hasn’t been this high since late January 2014.

Many observers expect higher rates to endure because of recent strong economic data and the likelihood of a rate increase by the Federal Reserve later this month.
Bankrate.com, which puts out a weekly mortgage rate trend index, found that half of the experts it surveyed say rates will rise in the coming week. Elizabeth Rose, branch manager at Dallas-based Movement Mortgage, is one who says rates are headed higher.
“Expect continued volatility to put pressure on mortgage rates,” she said. “Mortgage bonds were in the process of attempting a recovery. However, some decent economic news the past few days have put a damper on those improvements.”

Higher rates have driven down mortgage applications, particularly those for refinances. According to the latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association, the market composite index — a measure of total loan application volume — sank 9.4 percent from the previous week. The refinance index tumbled 16 percent, while the purchase index inched down 0.2 percent.
The refinance share of mortgage activity accounted for 55.1 percent of all applications.
“Mortgage application volume in the Thanksgiving week dropped sharply to the lowest level since early January, as mortgage rates increased to their highest point since July 2015,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA chief economist. “Refinance volume, which is very sensitive to rates, dropped more than 16 percent in the most recent week, with refinances of government loans dropping 30 percent for the week. On a seasonally adjusted basis, purchase volume was little changed last week.  However, the mix continues to shift towards higher balance loans, as the average purchase loan size reached a new survey record.  First-time buyers and buyers of lower priced units may have stepped away from the market to some extent given the jump in rates. It appears that many homebuyers rushed to get their applications two weeks ago as rates began to increase.”

Mortgage Rates Inch Up; Solid Jobs Report Is Consistent With a December Rate Rise

Mortgage rates inched ahead on Friday; meanwhile, 161,000 jobs added in October and advancing hourly wages are consistent with a December rate rise from the Fed.

Nov 4, 2016 at 2:19PM

IMAGE SOURCE: PIXABAY.

Mortgage rates inched up on Friday: The average 30-year mortgage rate is 3.49%, which equates to a $448.49 monthly payment per $100,000 borrowed. A month ago, the equivalent payment would have been lower by $7.22.
If you opt for a shorter term, the average 15-year mortgage rate is 2.74%, which equates to a $678.15 monthly payment per $100,000 borrowed. A month ago, the equivalent payment would have been lower by $5.22.

Rate (national average)	Today	1 Month Ago
30-year fixed jumbo	4.13%	4.35%
30-year fixed	3.49%	3.36%
15-year fixed	2.74%	2.63%
30-year fixed refi	3.52%	3.41%
15-year fixed refi	2.77%	2.65%
5/1 ARM	3.04%	2.92%
5/1 ARM refi	3.17%	3.02%

5/1 ARM = ADJUSTABLE-RATE MORTGAGE WITH AN INITIAL FIXED FIVE-YEAR INTEREST RATE. DATA SOURCE: BLOOMBERG.

Strong October jobs report sets up a December rate hike, but expect rate rises to be gradual

The employment situation report for the month of October was well-received on Friday. The addition of 161,000 jobs to nonfarm payrolls was within Bloomberg's range of estimates of 155,000 to 200,000. That figure was bolstered with upward revisions for August and September totaling 44,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.9% in October, from 5%, in line with the consensus estimate. Most noteworthy, perhaps, were average hourly earnings, which rose by 0.4%, above the 0.2% to 0.3% range of estimates.
Despite these results, the market-implied probability of a December interest-rate rise fell from 78% to 74% on Friday, according to data from Bloomberg. The probabilities are derived from prices in the federal funds futures market.
Speaking at the 2016 Realtors Conference and Expo this morning, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta president Dennis Lockhart said of this morning's report, "the top-line numbers look solid." He went on to say:

I anticipate a very gradually rising interest rate environment over the next two years. ... And when the rate environment does reach steady state, mortgage rates should still be low and affordable by historical standards.

Mr. Lockhart is not a member of the Fed's interest rate-setting committee.
The interest-rate cycle is turning, but the turn will likely be very gradual, which is good news for prospective homebuyers.

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